- Before
- Sees each of 46 borrowers once a month in a spreadsheet; the trouble starts in the weeks between.
- Now
- Starts every morning on control charts for every borrower, with the transactions behind any point past a limit.
One borrower, from a drifting chart to an approved decision
Monday 12 October 2026 at Bramwell Business Credit: 46 borrowers, $1.12B outstanding. Ashford Fastener & Supply's certificate says it has $5,187,000 of excess availability. Here is what the working solution finds, screen by screen.
- 0106:00
Every borrower charted before the team starts
Lockbox and cash watcher · Trend and risk scorerThe agents read 46 lockbox files ($41.8M received across the portfolio) and 45 daily sales and credit journals — Bellwether has sent none since 25 Sep. By 06:07, 184 measures are plotted against their limits: dilution, DSO, collections and inventory turns for every borrower, each with its last 30 days coloured.
“4 beyond a limit · 5 drifting · 170 in control · 5 without data.”
- 02Morning
A control chart, with limits from the borrower's own history
Elena Marchetti · Collateral managerElena opens on Ashford's trailing 30-day dilution: 6.62% today, against a centre of 3.40% and limits of 0.55%–6.25% set from the 12 months before its 14 Apr 2026 field exam. Day 17 of September is ringed — 6.41%, +3.2σ, beyond the limit. Behind it: credit memos to Tremont, the top customer, of $512,600 in 30 days against $168,400 a month in the year before the exam, with the largest memos listed.
“Flagged 21 days before certificate 41 and 115 days before the next field exam.”
- 03Ranked
The watchlist: recomputed, not as certified
Trend and risk scorerEvery borrower's collateral is recomputed under its own credit agreement and ranked against its last exam. Ashford tops the list at a risk of 86 with four alerts: $3,778,550 of excess availability recomputed, against $5,187,000 certified. Across the portfolio, the certificates overstate availability by $3.28M.
- 04Opened
The borrower, against its last exam
Elena Marchetti · Collateral managerAshford's cockpit puts the certificate and the recomputed base side by side, under a red banner: on the recomputed base, it is under the $4,500,000 trigger. Tremont is 23.6% of receivables against a 20% limit and 14.2% at the exam; DSO is 58 days against 47; aging past 90 is 9.8% against 4.1%. The September credit-memo register arrived at 08:51 and is not in the number yet.
- 05One click
Re-checked with this morning's files
The six agentsElena presses Re-check. The register is read — 214 memos, $1,482,120, tied to the general ledger to the dollar. This morning's lockbox shows $612,400 received and nothing from Tremont since 3 Sep. The eligibility checker applies §1.1; the dilution analyst works the reserve; the scorer recomputes.
“Excess availability $3,519,646 — $980,354 under the trigger · risk 86 → 91.”
- 06Why
Concentration, cross-aging and dilution, by the agreement's definitions
Eligibility and concentration checker · Dilution analystTremont Equipment Works is $9,067,000 of receivables against a limit of $7,684,000, so $1,383,000 is ineligible; Delmar Hydraulics is 55% past 90 days, over the 50% cross-aging line, so its remaining $274,000 comes out too. Neither was taken off certificate 41. Trailing three-month dilution is 5.8% against 3.1% at the exam; 61% of September's credits were pricing adjustments, and the agreement's rule gives a 0.8-point reserve of $258,904.
- 07Cash
Collections slowing while sales hold
Lockbox and cash watcherLockbox receipts over the last six weeks are $4.33M a week against $5.28M before — down 18% — while weekly sales are up 1%. Tremont's receipts fell 88% and it is marked “Stopped paying”. The September roll-forward still explains the aging within $64,120 (0.17%, inside the 0.5% tolerance): the receivables are real, they are just not being paid.
- 08Recomputed
The borrowing base, as filed and as recomputed
Eligibility and concentration checkerLine by line: borrowing base $38,367,000 as filed, $36,699,646 recomputed; excess availability $5,187,000 against $3,519,646. Six checks passed, from the certificate tying to the 9 Oct aging to insurance naming the bank as lender loss payee. Under §7.4, below the trigger, cash dominion springs and the 1.10x fixed-charge test applies.
“That is a covenant decision for Derek Oyelaran and Margaret Lindqvist — the agents only refer it.”
- 09Proposed
Six actions, a targeted exam and a letter
Action recommenderThe proposal: take Tremont's excess and Delmar out of the base, take the dilution reserve, bring the field exam forward from 11 Jan 2027 to Mon 26 Oct 2026 with Sam Whitlock for three days, ask Ashford for a corrected certificate by Wed 14 Oct, and refer the trigger. The exam scope is four tests drawn from the alerts, starting with 25 Tremont invoices dated after 1 Sep, confirmed with Tremont's accounts payable.
“Letter to Ashford — drafted · sent only when approved.”
- 10Approved
She approves; the chief credit officer co-approves
Elena Marchetti · Margaret LindqvistElena approves a $1,667,354 reduction in availability. It is above her $500,000 limit, so it goes to Margaret Lindqvist, chief credit officer, who co-approves minutes later. The letter goes to Ray Kowalczyk, Sam Whitlock is booked for 26 Oct, and the trigger referral goes to Derek Oyelaran — the cash dominion notice stays with the people who own it.