Catastrophe event response: which programs a catastrophe hits, how deep, and which notices are owed
Programs hit, layer depth and notices owed, in one view after an event.
See one case, screen by screen ↓It is the work a reinsurer does after a catastrophe: finding which programs are in the event footprint, estimating the loss to each program and layer, netting off its own retro, and tracking the notices owed on both sides. Catastrophe Event Response puts the footprint beside every program's layer stack and has agents do the matching, the layer arithmetic, the advice reconciliation and the notice clocks.
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After a hurricane, wildfire or earthquake, a property treaty reinsurer has three questions to answer fast: which programs are in the footprint, how far into each layer the loss will reach, and which notices are now owed — to it by cedants, and by it to its own retrocessionaires. The gross estimate comes first. Then each treaty's retention, limit, line and reinstatements have to be applied, and the outward retro netted off, usually in a spreadsheet outside the exposure system.
And it never stays done. Modelers publish ranges within days, the industry index publishes its first estimate days later and resurveys for months, and every new number means rebuilding the book. Meanwhile the hours clause decides whether two bursts of damage are one loss occurrence or two, and notice clauses on both sides keep their own clocks. A missed notice puts a recovery at risk.
Estimated split for one landfalling hurricane across a Florida property cat book, by spreadsheet and with the solution. Each new industry estimate starts much of it again.
Six specialist agents map, price and track every program after an event; the CUO and the claims manager sign.
Hurricane Delphine made landfall near Englewood, Florida, at 02:15 ET on Thursday 8 October as a Category 4 storm, 130 mph. It is Monday 12 October, day 4, and the industry index has just published its first estimate. Here is what happens next at Northmoor Re, screen by screen, in the working solution.
Elliot opens the event. On the left, Delphine's track, wind-field bands and surge, with Gulfstar Mutual's 61,240 insured locations as dots — $24.8bn insured value, 2.90% of the industry loss. In the middle, Gulfstar's layer stack drawn to scale; on the right, every industry estimate since landfall on one step line, with each layer's breach point drawn across it.
Agents' run, 07:12 · 2 min 04 s: “40 layers · Gulfstar L1–L4 exhausted, L5 1% · $286.7M”
“Replay the estimates” steps through the six releases: $14.0bn, $22.0bn, $26.0bn, $31.0bn, $34.5bn and $38.0bn. At Modeler A's first range, midpoint $22.0bn, Gulfstar's Layers 1 and 2 are exhausted and Layer 3 is 63% filled; Northmoor's gross across the book is $147.7M and the retro recovers nothing yet. Each release is versioned, and no run mixes footprint versions.
At the index's $38.0bn, Gulfstar's ground-up loss is $1,102M and Layer 4, $350M xs $750M, is exhausted. Click the layer and the calculation is laid out: the layer loss, Northmoor's 15% line at $52.5M, the reinstatement premium at a 5.5% rate on line, and the industry number where the layer exhausts — $37.9bn. Under it: the estimate, the footprint version, the exposure file and the event definition used.
The layer calculator proposes the event loss pick. It never books a reserve.
The programs view shows the whole book at $38.0bn: 7 hit, 2 near, 5 clear. Each cedant's share of the industry loss, ground-up loss against retention, inline layer bars and loss advice status. Northmoor gross $286.7M; the retro, $250M xs $150M, recovers $136.7M; net $150.0M before $34.2M of reinstatement premiums due to Northmoor.
Rosa opens Gulfstar Mutual's 2026 Florida Homeowners Property Catastrophe XoL. Layer 5 is 1% filled and exhausts at $51.7bn. Exposure by county shows why the share is high — 14,698 locations in Sarasota and 7,961 in Charlotte, both Category 4. Gulfstar's preliminary advice of $1,040M runs 5.6% below the model, within tolerance. Northmoor's share, $116.6M, stands as the proposed event reserve.
“Gulfstar want to know whether Layer 5 is in play.”
Event definitions and notice clauses from the signed 2026 wordings of the seven programs hit, Northmoor's retro and its industry loss warranty, side by side: 9 wordings, 5 differing from the Northmoor standard. Palmetto Shore has 96 hours, not 72, with a start of Wed 7 Oct 22:00 ET, so its window takes in the Brevard tornadoes and late surge claims as one event. Bayline Condo gives 10 days to notify and two reinstatements.
Eleven notices tracked, four due this week. The retro notice to the panel of 7 retrocessionaires is due Thu 22 Oct: the clock started on Thu 8 Oct at 09:20, when the first estimate put Northmoor's loss at $81.5M, above 50% of the $150M retention. The notice keeper drafted the letter under Article 14; chasers to Sabal Specialty and Coquina Home & Property are drafted too.
Article 14: “… within 14 days after it becomes aware that a Loss Occurrence is likely to exceed 50% of the Retention.”
Northmoor's $50M Florida wind industry loss warranty triggers at $40.0bn. Clause 6 asks for notice within 2 business days once the reported index reaches 90% of the trigger, and $38.0bn is 95%. The notice of potential trigger is drafted; Kofi reads it, edits if he needs to, and signs and sends it himself.
The notice keeper never sends. The claims manager signs every notice.
The timeline runs from the forecast on Tue 6 Oct to this morning, with the 72-hour window from Thu 8 Oct 02:15 to Sun 11 Oct 02:15 drawn across it. The Brevard County tornadoes on Fri 9 Oct fall inside it — one event, one retention. Every estimate, advice, notice and decision is on it, including the interim loss pick signed on Sunday at $257.9M gross.
The report writer rebuilt the management event report at $38.0bn, every figure cited: $286.7M gross, $28.8M above Sunday's interim pick, $150.0M net of retro — the full retro retention, with $113.3M of retro limit left. Elliot reviewed it at 07:40. Adaeze signs with her password and the meaning of the signature, and it goes to Hannah Strauss, due Thu 15 Oct.
Meaning of signature: “I approve this event loss pick for the risk committee.”
The same hurricane, seen by the five people at Northmoor Re who carry it — what the week after landfall looked like, and what it looks like now.
Six specialist agents map, price and track every program after an event; the CUO and the claims manager sign.
Pulls forecast advisories, wind field and surge footprints and every published industry loss estimate, and versions the footprint. Checks the advisory feed, the modelers and the industry index every 30 minutes during an open event.
Overlays each cedant's insured locations — the renewal submission, updated by bordereaux — on the footprint, applies vulnerability by construction and wind band, and computes each program's share of the industry loss.
Applies retention, limit, Northmoor's line, reinstatements and the event definition to give the loss by layer and the industry number at which each layer exhausts, then nets off the retro.
Reads cedant loss advices, claim bulletins and emails, matches each to its program and event window, compares it to the modelled loss and explains gaps over 10%.
Finds the notice trigger and deadline in every inward and outward wording, starts the clock when a trigger is met, drafts the notice or chaser and puts it in front of the claims manager, with reminders at 3 days and 1 day.
Drafts the management event report — headline, programs, layers, net of retro, notices, open questions — and cites every figure to its estimate, footprint, exposure file or clause.
Signs the event loss pick. The agents propose; a named person decides.
The catastrophe team can ask in plain words — or move the estimate. Every answer cites the run, the estimate or the clause it rests on.
Which layers break if the estimate reaches $45bn?
Two more layers are exhausted: Sabal Specialty Layer 2 and Caloosa Reciprocal Layer 2, both at $40.0bn. The industry loss warranty triggers at $40.0bn — $50M back to Northmoor. I have moved the what-if to $45bn on the footprint.
Why is Gulfstar 2.9% of the industry loss?
Because its homes sit in the core of the storm. 61,240 insured locations, $24.8bn insured value, are in the footprint; 37% of them are in Sarasota and Charlotte, under the Category 4 wind and the surge in footprint version 4. Its modelled loss is $1,102M at $38.0bn. Gulfstar's own advice of $1,040M is 5.6% lower.
Which notices are due this week?
Four, by Friday: the warranty counterparty, due Wed 14 Oct, because the index reached 95% of $40.0bn; Sabal Specialty's loss advice, Thu 15 Oct, chaser drafted; the event loss pick to Hannah Strauss, Thu 15 Oct; and Coquina Home & Property's loss advice, Fri 16 Oct, chaser drafted. Next week: the retro notice, due Thu 22 Oct.
Draft the event note for the CRO
Drafted at the $38.0bn index estimate: Northmoor gross $286.7M, retro recovery $136.7M, net $150.0M before $34.2M of reinstatement premiums; 7 programs hit; Gulfstar Layer 4 exhausted. It is on the report page for Adaeze Morrow to sign — due to Hannah Strauss by Thu 15 Oct.
13 screens from the working solution, on its sample data. Pick one to see it large.
Which number leads, when the team is alerted and who signs are settings — and each wording's own clauses override the notice and event defaults.
| Setting | Default | Choose from |
|---|---|---|
| Which estimate leads | Industry index, once published | Industry index · midpoint of modeler ranges · Northmoor's own footprint run, in that order |
| Check for new numbers during an open event | Every 30 minutes | In steps of 5 minutes |
| Alert when a layer passes | 50% filled | In steps of 5% |
| Alert when the estimate comes within | 10% of a layer's exhaustion point or the warranty trigger | In steps of 5% |
| Explain a cedant advice that differs from the model by more than | 10% | In steps of 5% |
| Re-run the book on every new estimate | On | On · Off |
| Text the CUO when a layer is exhausted | On | On · Off |
| Event definitions | Named windstorm 72 h · earthquake 72 h · flood 168 h · wildfire 168 h | The wording wins |
Every figure is labelled: a target the solution is built to, an estimate, a typical published result, or a proven one.
“demo” = seen in the working solution, on its sample event data · “target” = the design goal, measured in the live solution · “estimated” = our estimate · “typical” = published figures (Swiss Re Institute — insured catastrophe losses of US$80bn in H1 2025; Deloitte ceded reinsurance survey — 71% say late data drives manual work and errors, 57% have no single data source). Hurricane Delphine, Northmoor Re, its cedants and the people named on this page are fictional — characters and sample data in the working solution.
It is the work a reinsurer does after a catastrophe: finding which programs are in the event footprint, estimating the loss to each program and layer, netting off its own retro, and tracking the notices owed on both sides. Catastrophe Event Response puts the footprint beside every program's layer stack and has agents do the matching, the layer arithmetic, the advice reconciliation and the notice clocks.
The exposure matcher overlays each cedant's insured locations on the footprint and works out the program's share of the industry loss. The layer calculator applies retention, limit, Northmoor's line, reinstatements and the event definition, and shows the industry number at which each layer exhausts. Click any layer to see the arithmetic.
The footprint reader picks it up — it checks every 30 minutes during an open event — and every program and layer is re-priced. In the working solution, the $38.0bn index estimate re-ran 14 programs and 40 layers in 2 minutes 04 seconds. You can also click any earlier release, or drag the what-if to any number up to $60bn.
Yes. Event definitions are read from each signed wording, and the wording overrides the defaults of 72 hours for named windstorm and earthquake and 168 hours for flood and wildfire. In the Delphine case, Palmetto Shore's 96-hour window is applied instead of 72, and the Brevard County tornadoes fall inside the 72-hour window as one event, one retention.
The notice keeper reads every inward and outward notice clause, starts the clock when a trigger is met, and drafts the notice or chaser. The loss advice reader matches each cedant advice to its program and event window and explains gaps over 10% from the model. Every due date cites its clause.
Yes. The agents propose the event loss pick and draft notices; they never book a reserve, send a notice or sign. The chief underwriting officer signs the loss pick and report, the reinsurance claims manager signs every notice, and a reserve change over $25M needs both the CUO and the chief risk officer.
Yes. Every figure cites its estimate release, footprint version, exposure file or clause, and each run records the estimate, footprint version, exposure version and treaty terms it used, so it can be replayed.
The Agentic Solution Engine builds and deploys it from your requirements and documents — your programs and layers, your cedants' exposure files, your signed wordings and your estimate sources. It goes live once every quality gate has passed.
A checked renewal submission in days, not weeks, every figure traced.
1-min demoTreaty Underwriting WorkbenchA first view of every program in hours, not days.
1-min demoTreaty Wording ComparisonEvery changed clause found before signing, not when a claim tests it.
1-min demoWe’ll run Catastrophe Event Response on a past event against your own programs and layers.